The Central Bank reduced its year-end dollar forecast to 5.82 TL and its year-end inflation forecast to 11.62 percent.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced its expectations survey for December. Accordingly, the year-end dollar forecast decreased from 5.91 TL to 5.82 TL, while the year-end inflation forecast dropped from 12.18 percent to 11.61 percent.
REDUCED INFLATION FORECAST
While the current year-end CPI expectation was 12.18 percent in the previous survey period, it decreased to 11.62 percent in this survey period. While the 12-month CPI expectation was 10.46 percent in the previous survey period, it became 10.07 percent in this survey period. The CPI expectation after 24 months was 9.16 percent and 8.94 percent, respectively, in the same survey periods.
INTEREST EXPECTATIONS DECREASED
While the current month-end overnight interest rate expectation in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market was 13.56 percent in the previous survey period, it decreased to 12.40 percent in this survey period. CBRT Weighted Average Funding Cost current month expectation was 13.83 percent and 12.41 percent, respectively, in the same survey periods.
YEAR-END DOLLAR EXPECTATION DECREASED TO 5.82 TL
While the 2019 year-end dollar expectation was 5.91 TL in the previous survey period, it decreased to 5.82 TL in this survey period. The exchange rate expectation after 12 months was 6.32 TL and 6.35 TL, respectively, in the same survey periods.
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE EXPECTATION
While the current account balance expectation for 2019 was 0.6 billion dollars in the previous survey period, it became 1.2 billion dollars in this survey period. The current account balance expectation for 2020 was -13.3 billion dollars and -13.9 billion dollars, respectively, in the same survey periods.
GROWTH EXPECTATIONS INCREASED
While the GDP growth expectation for 2019 was 0.3 percent in the previous survey period, it became 0.4 percent in this survey period. The growth expectation for 2020 was 3.1 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively, in the same survey periods.
