Although the number of deaths in the new type of coronavirus (Covid-19) epidemic in the USA exceeded 58 thousand 350, surpassing the number of Americans who lost their lives in the Vietnam War, discussions about the beginning of normalization in economic activity continue.
According to the data announced yesterday, the consumer confidence index in the USA decreased by 31.9 points to 86.9 in April, remaining below expectations, while the first quarter growth data of the USA will be followed today. Expectations are that US GDP will decline by 4 percent annually in the first quarter.
On the other hand, it was noteworthy that stock and sector-based movements increased in the stock markets due to the announced first quarter company balance sheets. Yesterday, the Dow Jones index lost 0.13 percent, the S&P 500 index lost 0.52 percent and the Nasdaq index lost 1.40 percent.
On the European side, a positive trend was observed in the stock markets with the developments that the economy will gradually reopen. Yesterday, the DAX index in Germany increased by 1.27 percent, the FTSE 100 index in the UK increased by 1.91 percent, the CAC 40 index in France increased by 1.43 percent and the MIB 30 index in Italy increased by 1.71 percent.
Europe’s agenda Fitch Ratings’ assessment of Italy
Today’s agenda in Europe will be the evaluation of Italy by the international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, which was published after the markets closed last night. Fitch Ratings downgraded Italy’s credit rating from “BBB” to “BBB-” and determined the outlook as “stable”.
In the statement of Fitch Ratings, it was stated that if there is a second wave in the Covid-19 epidemic and the resumption of isolation measures, the economy will weaken further this year and next year. In the statement, it was noted that the asset purchases of the European Central Bank (ECB) will facilitate Italy’s fiscal measures against the epidemic, and will also alleviate the refinancing of risks by keeping borrowing costs at low levels in the short term.
Asian markets started the new day calmly. While the Nikkei 225 index in Japan followed a horizontal course near the closing, the Shanghai composite index in China gained 0.2 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea gained 0.5 percent. The dollar/yen parity continued its downward trend and fell to 106.5, the lowest level in about 6 weeks.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index, which reached the 102,000 mark yesterday, started to decline due to profit sales that increased their impact at this level, and finished the day at 100,707.48 points, with a 0.55 percent decrease compared to the previous close. Dollar/TL is traded at 6.9820 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 6.9871.
Fed’s interest rate decision will be followed
Analysts stated that the interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the guidance of Fed President Jerome Powell regarding the next period monetary policy will be followed today, and then the ECB decision tomorrow will be awaited. Market expectations are that the Fed will not change interest rates to see the effects of the fiscal policy measures taken.
Analysts stated that technically, 102,500 points in the BIST 100 index are resistance and 100,000 and 99,000 levels are support, and noted that the 6.95-7.00 band will be followed in dollar/TL.
The data to follow in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Türkiye, April economic confidence index
12.00 Eurozone, April consumer confidence index
15.00 Germany, April Consumer Price Index
15.30 USA, 1st quarter GDP
17.00 USA, March pending home sales
21.00 USA, Fed interest rate decision
Source: https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ekonomi/kuresel-piyasalar-fede-odaklandi/1822305
