Black Sea discovery could meet 22 percent of gas demand for 40 years

Prof. Dr. Biresselioğlu, regarding the new discovery made in the Sakarya Gas Field, said, “According to 2019 consumption amounts, it will be possible to provide 22 percent of Turkey’s annual natural gas demand for about 40 years.”

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Efe Biresselioğlu, Head of the Department of Sustainable Energy at Izmir University of Economics, said in his evaluation to AA correspondent regarding the new discovery made in the Sakarya Gas Field that the Fatih drilling ship has been actively working in the Black Sea since July.

Emphasizing that a natural gas reserve of 320 billion cubic meters, which can be classified as a giant deposit in international standards, was discovered at a depth of 2 thousand 100 meters with the work carried out in the Tuna-1 research well 170 kilometers off Zonguldak, Biresselioğlu said, “The accelerating studies show that there are two more layers as we go deeper than a thousand meters. An additional reserve of 85 billion cubic meters has been discovered in the Tuna-1 exploration well, which was completed by going down to a depth of more than 4,500 meters. Thus, the total reserve amount has increased to 405 billion cubic meters. This amount is the largest hydrocarbon resource discovered in the history of Turkey.”

Önümüzdeki aylarda Sakarya sondaj sahasındaki Türkali-1 kuyusunda doğalgaz çalışmalarının devam edeceğine işaret eden Biresselioğlu, “Burada elde edilecek olumlu sonuçlarla bu miktarın daha da artması bekleniyor. Temmuz ayında keşfedilen rezerv ve sonrasında yeni sismik çalışmalarla yapılan rezerv miktarı revizyonu Türkiye için birçok fırsatı beraberinde getirebilir. Enerjide dışa bağımlılığın azaltılması, cari açığın düşürülmesi ve daha geniş çerçevede enerji güvenliğinin artırılması gibi fırsatların elde edilebileceği beklenmektedir.”

Biresselioğlu, keşfedilen rezervlerin Türkiye’yi uluslararası arenada enerji diplomasisinde daha aktif bir oyuncu haline getireceğini ve stratejik karar alma süreçlerine daha fazla katılım gibi siyasi sonuçları da beraberinde getireceğini kaydetti:

“In line with the data presented by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, if 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas is produced annually in the Sakarya Gas Field, it will be possible to meet 22 percent of Turkey’s annual natural gas demand from this reserve for approximately 40 years, according to 2019 consumption figures. New seismic studies and reserve revisions mean that this production amount will gradually increase. While the 320 billion cubic meters of natural gas reserves first discovered in July correspond to Turkey’s need for 7 years, with the additional reserves announced, this period is approaching 10 years. These figures are expected to increase with further discoveries in other fields. In this context, it is also important for Turkey to continue its offshore exploration.”

“The reserve is in an area that can be easily commercialized”

Biresselioğlu stated that Sakarya Gas Field is at a very strategic point due to its proximity to the natural gas exploration fields of Romania and Bulgaria, where major energy companies are investing, and pointed out that the Sakarya Gas Field location is located in an area where the reserves found can be easily commercialized if they are put into production.

Biresselioğlu pointed out that with the experience gained in the Tuna-1 well and the know-how gained in previous drilling in the Black Sea and international cooperation, discoveries can continue in the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, and continued as follows:

“With the Sakarya Gas Field and the discovery of natural gas, Russia is expected to be the country that will be most affected by Turkey’s changing energy policy in the long term, even though its share in imports has been decreasing in recent years. The timing of the discoveries in the Sakarya natural gas field coinciding with the contract update period with Russia, Turkey’s most important gas supplier, and the potential of the reserve are factors that increase the importance of the reserve in the Black Sea. This reserve and others to be discovered could strengthen Turkey’s hand in the international arena. At the same time, if new discoveries are made in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey may have a say in natural gas production in the long term. In this context, international cooperation in areas such as exploration, natural gas production and export links in the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean will also be on the agenda. Another important issue here is the security of supply within the framework of the concept of energy security. Thanks to the reserves discovered, Turkey will have a natural gas supply that is not affected by other countries, political developments and market conditions, which will mean a reduction in uncertainties and risks in this regard.”

“The discourse that there is no oil in Turkey is a thing of the past”

Oğuzhan Akyener, President of the Turkish Energy Strategies and Policies Research Center (TESPAM), stated that a 26 percent reserve increase was achieved in the Tuna-1 well as a result of testing the levels reached in the lower layers.

Emphasizing that Turkey has discovered the largest reserves in the history of hydrocarbons and made this discovery in a difficult area such as the Black Sea, in a virgin region, in the deep sea, Akyener said: “With the big fish it has caught, Turkey has put the discourse that there is no oil in Turkey into history, and in this context, it has given rise to new hopes. It was able to manage all these processes professionally with domestic facilities.”

Akyener said that the gas field, which has a reserve of 405 billion cubic meters, can be produced with an average plateau level of 16 to 16.5 billion cubic meters, and assuming that the first production will start in 2023, almost 30 percent of Turkey’s production can be realized with domestic resources in the 2027s.

Stating that the meaning of the amount of reserves discovered can be understood by making some comparisons, Akyener said

“For example, if we focus on the Eastern Mediterranean, over which there are big fights, Egypt is producing its own resource potential and exporting it via LNG, while Israel needs a route or a big market like Turkey in order to start full capacity production. In terms of discovered and contested reserves, only the Aphrodite, Calypso and Glaucus structures in the south of the island of Cyprus remain. When we add up the estimated reserves of these three structures, a volume of approximately 319 billion cubic meters emerges. Therefore, Turkey has discovered a bigger pie in the Black Sea than the one on the table in terms of the energy dimension of the dispute in the Eastern Mediterranean. On the other hand, the additional 85 billion cubic meters of reserve increase has almost the same amount of resources as the 89 billion cubic meters of Glaucus structure. In other words, with this reserve increase, it is as if Turkey has found a new field, even though it is in the same field. On the other hand, these discoveries will strengthen Turkey’s hand against the EU and the US, which support the Southern Gas Corridor idea in every way, and Russia, which is the largest gas exporter. The national technologies developed within this sector will pave the way for much greater breakthroughs in our blue homeland.”

Lasiad

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