WTO announced that trade in goods may decrease in the first quarter

The World Trade Organization-WTO announced that global goods trade expectations for the first quarter of 2020 are decreasing. The organization that published the “Goods Barometer” index announced that the index they created was below the 4th quarter of 2019.

WTO “Commodity Barometer” consists of the calculation of various sub-indices, and values below the midpoint of 100 indicate a slowdown, while values above indicate an increase. Subdata such as export orders, container shipments, agricultural product and automotive parts orders are taken as leading indicators and the relevant period of global goods trade is tried to be calculated in advance.

In the WTO statement, “Growth in world trade in goods is expected to remain weak in early 2020. “Trading trends show 95.5, lower than the 96.6 recorded in November 2019 and well below the index’s base value of 100,” it said.

Coronavirus may bring it down even further

In the WTO study, which said, “This low-trending performance can be further reduced by a new global health threat,” it was stated that the COVID-19 epidemic that started in China had no effect on the published index.

In the evaluation of past data, it was reminded that the global goods trade volume decreased by 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2019 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Although there is a possibility of a small increase on an annual basis in the fourth quarter, it was emphasized that there is no sign of a stable improvement within the framework of the next period calculations made within the scope of the “Goods Barometer”.

Measurements in the sub-index

In the WTO study, it was stated that the main reasons for the slowdown in the general trend as of November 2019 were the decrease in the index values of container shipping indexes (94.8) and agricultural raw materials (90.9) and the automotive products index (100.0). On the other hand, export orders (98.5), air transportation (94.6) and electronic components (92.8) indices remained stable, although they remained below 100. In the study, “These indices are expected to increase normally in the coming months. However, every component of the Goods Trade Barometer will be affected by the economic impact of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of efforts to treat and control the disease,” it said.

Source: https://www.dunya.com/dunya/dto-ilk-ceyrekte-mal-ticareti-azalabilecegini-acikladi-haberi-463060

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